Un lugar llamado Artsaj
Luego de décadas de conflicto, la disputa por el Nagorno Karabaj parece llegar a su fin
Transcaucasia, Cáucaso meridional o Cáucaso sur es una de las regiones calientes de Asia, compuesta por los Estados de Georgia, Armenia y Azerbaiyán; y las repúblicas parcialmente reconocidas de Abjasia, Osetia del Sur, Najicheván y, hasta unas semanas atrás, Arstaj.
Una región inmersa en tensiones políticas, territoriales, culturales e identitarias. Un mosaico que se reconfigura y que, entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán, lo hace bajo el humo de los cañones.
Nagorno Karabaj, Alto Karabaj o Artsaj (en armenio) es una región ubicada en Azerbaiyán, pero donde vive una mayoría armenia. En concreto, este enclave con pretensiones independentistas no está bajo soberanía de Armenia, al tiempo en que es reconocido como azerí por el derecho internacional.
Un repaso histórico necesario
Si bien Armenia y Azerbaiyán son naciones con una historia centenaria, que además han sido dominadas por imperios como el persa o el ruso, la historia más reciente las sitúa bajo el dominio soviético. Y es con la implosión de la URSS, a fines del siglo pasado, que la disputa entre ambas repúblicas postsoviéticas tomó impulso.
Entre ambos Estados se encuentra una pequeña porción territorial conocida como Artsaj o Nagorno-Karabaj, una región montañosa donde confluyen historias, idiomas, culturas, naciones, religiones e identidades.
Bajo control soviético, la región del Cáucaso sur se construyó y reconstruyó sobre sí misma en sucesivas oportunidades. La República Democrática Federal de Transcaucasia fue la primera en ver la luz; luego será el turno de la República Socialista Federativa de Transcaucasia para, finalmente, constituirse las Repúblicas Socialistas de Georgia, Armenia y Azerbaiyán en 1936.
La historia (y la actualidad) ha dado muestras de las consecuencias que tiene la imposición de pautas políticas, así como de fronteras artificiales entre grupos étnicos y culturales diferenciados. Con una Unión Soviética debilitada, la disputa territorial entre Armenia y Azerbaiyán comenzó a intensificarse en referencia a la región de Nagorno Karabaj, habitada por una población identificada como armenia, aunque bajo la influencia del poder azerí.
Región del Cáucaso sur (Armenia, Azerbaiyán y Georgia). La región de Nagorno Karabaj (rojo) en disputa entre armenios y azeríes (Fuente: elDiario.ES)
La caída del Muro de Berlín en 1991 significó en parte la distensión política y bélica en Europa y Occidente. Pero en esta porción del mundo tuvo el efecto contrario. Las independencias de Armenia y Azerbaiyán se construyeron al tiempo en que se levantaban en armas por el territorio karabají que, al mismo tiempo, declaraba su propia independencia.
Nuevamente, la mediación de Rusia como un viejo conocido —ya en 1994—, posibilitaría cierta calma en medio de la guerra.
Los acontecimientos recientes
En septiembre de 2020 la región asistió a un nuevo estallido, con enfrentamientos violentos que implicaron pérdidas de vida y destrucción de infraestructura. Azerbaiyán inició la ofensiva militar con la intención de recuperar y controlar Nagorno Karabaj. Meses después, con una nueva mediación de Rusia, se alcanzó un alto al fuego ahora, con beneficios territoriales para los azeríes.
Para contener las tensiones, Rusia desplegó tropas en distintas zonas estratégicas como el corredor terrestre de Lachín, en una zona montañosa entre Nagorno Karabaj y Armenia. La intención era sostener una situación de status quo por, al menos, cinco años.
La paz con auspicio ruso —más que paz podría decirse interregno— se vio perturbada nuevamente en septiembre de 2023. Azerbaiyán puso en marcha una operación militar de rápida acción que marcó el fin de la no reconocida república de Artsaj. La palabra del gobierno de esta región supone su disolución definitiva, pautada para el 1° de enero de 2024.
Esta última arremetida implicó una de las mayores crisis de desplazados de las que se tenga registro en la región. De 120 mil armenios-karabajíes habitantes de Artsaj, más de 60 mil iniciaron una marcha con tintes de éxodo hacia Armenia.
¿Un desenlace definitivo?
El desplazamiento de la población de Nagorno Karabaj podría ser un triste capítulo final para un conflicto histórico. Tanto Armenia como Azerbaiyán son Estados fundados en un profundo sentimiento identitario y nacional. De un lado, armenios cristianos ortodoxos; del otro, azeríes musulmanes chiítas.
A las diferencias culturales deben sumarse las estratégicas. Azerbaiyán supera a su vecino en capacidad militar y bélica. Además, el gobierno de Bakú tiene una estrecha relación con la Turquía de Erdogan, lo que genera cierto recelo en el pueblo armenio, que aún mantiene fresca la memoria del genocidio padecido en manos del Imperio Turco.
Con poco lógica de identificación cultural, Armenia tiene cierto respaldo de Irán. Y es que la nación persa cuenta entre su población con una minoría azerí que ha tomado iniciativas desestabilizadoras para Teherán.
Amén de todo ello, una de las claves de cara al futuro tiene y tendrá que ver con la geopolítica energética. En este sentido, Azerbaiyán aparece como un aliado estratégico para Europa en un contexto de prolongación del conflicto ruso-ucraniano.
Desde Asia central y de camino a Europa, las redes de gasoductos tienen un punto nuclear en esta región del Cáucaso. El recorrido de este recurso comprende el paso por Georgia hacia Turquía, condiciones sobre las cuales el gobierno azerí intenta suministrar gas a los Balcanes vía Grecia.
Gasoductos con origen en Asia Central atraviesan el Cáucaso hacia Europa (Fuente: Geopol)
La pregunta sobre la cual debemos insistir entonces, es si Azerbaiyán cesará en sus intenciones de control sobre la región o si seguirá asediando al pueblo armenio en búsqueda de nuevas rutas necesarias para transportar sus recursos energéticos. En cualquiera de los casos, el mosaico transcaucásico aún se está reconfigurando. Y, si bien ese lugar llamado Artsaj dejará de serlo (al menos en la lengua del pueblo armenio), por enseñanza histórica y por hipótesis de conflictos, sería imprudente afirmar el fin definitivo de las controversias.
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Thank you admin.
Thank you admin.
Thank you admin.
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Thanks for your ideas. One thing we have noticed is the fact banks and also financial institutions have in mind the spending practices of consumers and as well understand that most of the people max out their cards around the holidays. They correctly take advantage of this specific fact and begin flooding your current inbox and snail-mail box by using hundreds of Zero APR credit card offers soon after the holiday season comes to an end. Knowing that in case you are like 98 of the American public, you’ll rush at the possiblity to consolidate credit debt and switch balances for 0 apr interest rates credit cards.
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Thank.
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